Scenario Building

One of BRG's core strengths is forecasting short medium and long term scenarios for building product sales by country and developing scenarios base on different events. BRG has a unique analysis of the installed base of some building products built over 30 years allowing for replacement models, combined with long term trend series and the ability to factor in events, such as sudden legislative changes.

More specifically short/medium and long term sales forecasts based on:

• Historical sales trends
• Size and age of installed base
• Macro-economic drivers
• Average replaced rates
• New construction trends and outlook
• Known forthcoming legislation
• Likely technological changes and improvements
• "Soft" inputs from industry players and key opinion leaders.

The inputs above go into forecasting in the following areas:

• Single products sales
• Multiple products sales
• Changes in technology mix and product displacement
• Switches in energy mix
• Changes in price mix
• Evolution of channel mix
• Changes in supply and competitor structures.

In addition to the above BRG is expert at factoring single event impact assessments and scenarios due to:

• Sudden legislative changes
• Major global/national climatic or economic events
• New technology breakthroughs
• Energy mix changes.

BRG can work with clients to create simulations and build strategies according to different assumed scenarios. This approach, known as war gaming, can also be used to prepare for potential future competitor threats.